Can TPP be revived under APEC 2017 in Vietnam?

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Đó là tiêu đề bài viết  mà trang thông tin Modern Diplomacy (ở địa chỉ www.moderndiplomacy.eu) đã đăng tải ngày 30/11/2017. Đây là bài viết của PGS.TS.Bùi Hồng Hạnh (trưởng bộ môn Nghiên cứu châu Âu, khoa Quốc tế học) cùng NCS Đỗ Quỳnh Anh ( đang học Nghiên cứu sinh chuyên ngành Quan hệ Quốc tế tại Đại học Cát Lâm (Jilin University), Trung Quốc). Khoa Quốc tế học xin trân trọng giới thiệu với thầy, cô và các bạn ! 

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The Trans - Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is the largest and most ambitious trade agreement in history, which was considered dead when US President Donald Trump abruptly announced his withdrawal in February, 2017. But shortly thereafter, TPP quietly took by the 11 remaining parties to restructure efforts under the name TPP11.

After the United States withdrew from the TPP, there are three views concerning the future of this agreement. Firstly, the most pessimistic view is that TPP without the United States will no longer be a TPP, so other countries should give up the agreement. Secondly, after the United States decisively withdraw, TPP should invite other Asian countries such as China, South Korea and Indonesia to participate and start negotiations again. Thirdly, the TPP 11 that is being headed by Japan will not change the content and the rest will continue to promote the TPP sooner. The third view is agreed by remaining countries, but this conclusion of TPP 11 still face many obstacles.

It is said that with the determination of the remaining members, TPP11 still has the prospect of revival. On the sidelines of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum held in New Zealand in May, the remaining 11 nations, in an attempt to restart the agreement, agreed to find ways to continue implementing the TPP without US . If revitalized, the TPP will link 11 countries, including the world's 4/20 leading economies, to a combined GDP of $ 9,800 billion, followed by 19 new free trade agreements. This is also the reason that some economists recently said that it is possible that the United States will have to rethink its attitude toward TPP.

In order to have a positive result from the other members, Japan and major economies in the TPP such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand have been working hard for nearly a year in the hope of accelerating the process. These members expressed their determination to work closely together to reach a compromise soon in line with the common interests of all countries.

Replacement of the United States leading position, Japan has pledged to play a leading role in setting a clear direction for the TPP11, as Tokyo believes that the agreement will not only bring economic benefits but also a geopolitical strategies. The victory in the House of Representatives elections in Japan on October 22 has strengthened the political role of Prime Minister Abe, who favors TPP, and shows the bright future of TPP11. From Australia side, Australia Trade Minister Steven Ciobo told reporters that the gains made by the TPP are worthy to continue the agreement. He expressed satisfaction with the views of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and what they discussed showed that there are more positive factors than expected. New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English continued to promote TPP11. He emphasizes that the country has stepped to the stage joining hands with Japan to recover the TPP process.

Meanwhile, Canada, the second largest economy in the TPP11, said it would try to remove the terms of each concession to the United States in its initial agreement. The US withdrawal from the TPP is bringing more benefits to Canada as well as allowing it a better position to rewrite the treaty. The Westover Center recently announced a study entitled "The Art of Trade Negotiation: Quantifying the Benefits of the TPP Without the United States." According to this report, Canada's exports to the TPP11 countries by the year 2035 will increase by 4.7%, while Mexico will increase by 3.12%, higher than the base without the TPP. When TPP included the US, the increase was only 0.36% and 0.05%. In addition, Mexico and Canada also benefited from exports to foreign TPPs in the context of TPP11 adoption. The study also found that Canada's largest harvest under the TPP was from agriculture, agricultural food because it was not competing with the United States in the TPP. The benefits of TPP11 will allow Canada and Mexico to broaden their lead in re-negotiating NAFTA. Peru and Chile are also beneficiaries of the US withdrawal from the TPP as these countries will have a larger market share in the non-US TPP. Similarly, Singapore will also have the advantage of not competing with the United States in the Asian market.

At present, in the hope of reviving the TPP Agreement, the original text of the TPP needs to be adapted to the new situation, not just a simple exemption from the US, but also a number of difficult issues. This new face gradually revealed. Some members have proposed modifying or freezing some of the terms of the agreement, such as issues related to state procurement or the protection of intellectual property rights. Viet Nam has proposed the possibility of regulating some provisions on worker rights and intellectual property regulations in the pharmaceutical field of the original treaty. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico have issued the terms they want to suspend, including a number of provisions of the TPP that may be incorporated into the revised version of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States and these two countries.

After many meetings, the common perception among member countries has progressed. A number of sessions have been conducted to find a way to modify the original TPP text to suit the new context. There have also been significant advances in discussions on the modification or suspension of certain terms, such as the intent to freeze a patent filing extension, if the application is subject to postponement. Unreasonable, investment rules, copyright protection ...Although the United States has retreated, the TPP is better than any agreement currently on the agenda of countries, such opportunities are not much. So, basically countries are discussing the same agreement with the original version.

Officials from several countries said a possible agreement could be reached at APEC 2017 - the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which will take place in Danang, Vietnam in November. TPP members are present at this conference. The move comes after the end of the fourth round of talks between high-level officials in Tokyo in September, which has sparked renewed hopes for a large-scale cooperation in the TPP process. Observers note the importance that the parties have achieved.   Peruvian Trade Minister Edgar Vasquez announced to media after the meetings "All member states are willing to evaluate alternatives so that TPP can survive."

At the meeting of APEC Finance Ministers in Hanoi on October 20, 2007, in addition to the contents related to APEC's organization works in Da Nang next month, the information showed that with little change, Japanese officials and participating countries are optimistic that TPP will have a good result in Da Nang.

Commenting on the next APEC meeting next month, the Australian Ambassador said Australia's main objective in the forum was to join the 10 member countries approve the TPP. After this round, the final decision on the new TPP, which many hope to become reality at the end of the year and if agreed, can be implemented from next year.

The TPP agreement will have some adjustments, but that contents is not much, not very important. Because of that, the general desire of TPP members still to hope America back. In order for the United States returned, TPP 11 can not cut off what it has installed in the Agreement so much, especially in such areas as labor, environment, intellectual property, public procurement, fighting terrorism, transparency and anti-corruption, conflict resolution, competition policy, and service sectors lead by United States. The revival of the TPP11, the Asia-Pacific region has determined Its own path, not completely passive look at the US leadership as before.

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